Time Series Analysis Model for the Rate of Influx of Refugees in Kenya

Abstract

There has been a large influx of refugees in Kenya from the neighboring countries due to their political instabilities. In this study, the number of refugees entering Kenya every year for a period 1993 to 2010 was analyzed using time series methods. Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function are calculated for the collected data. The appropriate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted. The validity of the developed model was then checked using standard statistical techniques. Since the ARIMA model has a forecasting power, it was used in forecasting the number of refugees in Kenya.